Somewhere, Jesse Helms is laughing

The Charlotte Observer says Senator Obama has only a slim chance of carrying North Carolina, among other things, because he's black:

Former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt rallied black voters when he ran against U.S. Sen. Jesse Helms in 1990. Like many southern states, though, there was a corresponding shift among whites, according to both Republican and Democratic strategists. Gantt won urban counties and Helms won in rural areas, as expected. Helms' margins in rural counties, though, were larger than anticipated, said Carter Wrenn, who ran Helms' campaign that year.

“There were a lot of white rural voters who were Democrats who had a problem voting for an African-American candidate,” Wrenn said.

North Carolina's population has changed dramatically since 1990 with northeasterners, Midwesterners and Hispanics flowing in.

“Yes, the state is changing. Yes, he has energized new voters,” said Pearce, the Democratic strategist. “Yes, he will drive African American turnout, but there still just aren't enough votes.

“His problem is still among white voters.”