So Robert Ford's gonna win?

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com says primary polling in America is subject to a much bigger margin of error than senate/governors/president races. And in the South primary polling's even worse, and worsest in Democratic primaries:

Primary polling is fairly poor. Whereas the average error in general election polls is on the order of 3-4 points for Presidential races, and 4-5 points for Senate and gubernatorial races, it's more like 7 points when forecasting the margin between the top two primary candidates. Between late-deciding voters, uncertainties accounting to turnout, and sometimes unusual demographics, the pollsters have a lot of challenges on their hands.

But the polls have been especially bad in one particular type of primary: that involving Southern Democrats. There, the average error has been slightly over 9 points.

Much of this is driven by 2008, when the polls tended to lowball Barack Obama's performance in Southern states. In those primaries, the polls missed by an average of 9.4 points. Outside of those Clinton-Obama contests, the sample size is fairly small: about 35 polls covering roughly 10 Democratic contests. Still, the error on those non-2008 races is above-average: 7.6 points, higher than what its been for Democrats in other regions.

The bottom line is that if you're used to taking polls with a grain of salt, primary polls require more like a tablespoon's worth. And polls of Southern Democratic primaries might need a whole salt shaker.