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Tuesday, September 22, 2015

British Bookies Break from Pork Futures to Pan POTUS Picks

The National Organization for Marriage has issued a number of press release/money begs announcing they have "identified" four Republican presidential candidates who have "emerged from the field" as "champions of marriage.

We're tracking the Real Clear Politics averaging of all polls and posting how the NOM champions are faring in the overall Trumparty nomination race. RCP ranks the top 15 of the 17 candidates: this week, Graham, Gilmore and Pataki remain underwater. Cruz has lost half a point, and Carson's momentum has slowed. Scott Walker has dropped out, releasing his 1.5%

We also follow other measures of the candidates' strengths. Today, we look at Primary Guide, a site drawn from UK betting pools. It measures odds on candidates winning the nomination and general election.

It's not looking good for the Champions of Marriage. 

Carson Nomination Odds: 4.6%  General Election Odds: 1.8%
Cruz Nomination Odds: 2.9% General Election Odds 1.1%
Jindal Nomination Odds: 0.3% General Election Odds: nil
Santorum: nil across the board.

In our last RCP survey, we found:

1. Ben Carson 

Average Poll Rating 8/9-25: 10.3% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 2 
Average Poll Rating 8/11-9/2: 13.2% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 2

Average Poll Rating 8/20-9/8: 16% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 2
Average Poll Rating 8/31-9/19: 18.8% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 2

2. Ted Cruz 

Average Poll Rating 8/9-25: 7.3% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 5 
Average Poll Rating 8/11-9/2: 7.2% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 5

Average Poll Rating 8/20-9/8: 7% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 4
Average Poll Rating 8/31-9/19: 6.5% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 5

3. Rick Santorum 

Average Poll Rating 8/9-25: 1% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 13 
Average Poll Rating 8/11-9/2: 1% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 13

Average Poll Rating 8/20-9/8: 1% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 12
Average Poll Rating 8/31-9/19: 0.8% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 13

4. Bobby Jindal 

Average Poll Rating 8/9-25: 0.5% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 14 
Average Poll Rating 8/11-9/2: 0.2% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 14

Average Poll Rating 8/20-9/8: 0.3% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 14
Average Poll Rating 8/31-9/19: 0.3% Avg. Overall Field Ranking: 14


Average 8/9-25 Poll Rating of the Marriage Champions as a group: 4.77% 
Average 8/11-9/2 Poll Rating of the Marriage Champions as a group: 5.35% 

Average 8/20-9/8 Poll Rating of the Marriage Champions as a group: 6.07% 
Average 8/31-9/19 Poll Rating of the Marriage Champions as a group: 6.4% 

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