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Friday, November 27, 2015

It's Santorum's to lose.

The Atlantic has a cool tool that takes polling data on GOP voters' second choices for POTUS. You can click on the candidate you most hope will drop out and see what kind of bump their supporters will give the survivors.

I've been following National Organization for Marriage​'s loudly-trumpeted summer selection of four "Champions of Marriage" among the GOP fold. Each was willing to sign a pledge to be as antigay as Brian Brown could tell them how to be.

Of NOM's favorite four, one- Jindal- has already wussed out. That leaves Carson Cruz and Santorum. Here's who will gain if each of NOM''s candidates stumbles or starves.

If Carson quits- Trump (up 6.6%) Another 6.4 will switch to NOM Champion Cruz. And 0.2% will go to NOM Champ, j.g., Santorum. That'd be a Yuuuuge Payday for Santorum, boosting by a third, to 0.7%.

If Cruz quits- an academic question- Trump bumps up 3.6%. Carson picks up 3.1%. And it'll be Santorum's best day yet! He'll be in tantalizing reach of the Grail: 1%.

If Santorum quits? No change for any of the other thirteen candidates. All of Senator Neologism's eleven supporters will jump off a bridge somewhere in rural Iowa.

It doesn't say much for NOM's political chops that the bulk of their hand-picked candidates' support will go to a candidate who is not a hater and hasn't given them the time of day.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/11/who-wins-when-a-presidential-candidate-loses/417867/?utm_source=SFFB

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